Porting To Xbox

[Pixel Perfect]

Correlation != Causation. I'd very much like to see the same data on the previous generation consoles at the tail end of their life cycle as well before I'd make that conclusion.

That mirrors my view point on this too, it's fun to draw the type of conclusions being drawn in this thread but I wouldn't put too much credence in them. If we could all throw a few stats onto a graph and draw meaningful and accurate predictions for the future we'd all be rich.

[Josh]

Remember that your personal tastes have nothing to do with the market as a whole. If the market reflected my preferences, every game after STALKER would have been rejected.

 

http://www.tuaw.com/...orm-is-the-ipad

 

Consoles used to be 80% of the industry as recently as 2000. Consoles today are 40% of the game industry, so what do we really have? We have a new hardware platform and we're putting out software every 90 days. Our fastest growing platform is the iPad right now and that didn't exist 18 months ago. -John Riccitiello, CEO of EA

 

It's already been decided. This guy knows a lot more about the industry than he will say in an interview.

[Brent Taylor]

Remember that your personal tastes have nothing to do with the market as a whole. If the market reflected my preferences, every game after STALKER would have been rejected.

 

http://www.tuaw.com/...orm-is-the-ipad

 

 

 

It's already been decided. This guy knows a lot more about the industry than he will say in an interview.

 

I don't have any real personal preference on this. I simply want to see the corresponding data for the previous console generation before linking cause with correlation. I certainly do not disagree that mobile gaming is on the rise (and by leaps and bounds). I'm just not positive that it's also driving down console sales. I'm curious if the current data also mirrors the tail end of the last console generation life cycle.

[Paul Thomas]

I just kept going past this thread, not replying, because it involves studying the subject in-depth before actually knowing what's all going on to have a real informed opinion. However, has anyone here played a game on a Droid X or similar device? It's stupid. The most awkward way of playing a game ever. I see this 'high rise' in mobile game sales all due to being the latest tech fad. It's still new so people are going to go crazy over it. What were the sales like for PSP when it came out? Nintendo DS?

 

Taking a look at that chart, those are sales amounts, not profit amounts correct? I've looked around randomly at mobile games for sale, it seems the average price for a mobile game is, what, $2.00? 1.2 million sales of mobile games pulling in 2.4 million in profit but 1.2 million sales of console games pulling in 50.2 million. Not really a margin I would care about. The only part I would care about is making a game, even a dumb game, would be fun to make for a mobile device. Really only because it's new.

 

Also, I can believe mobile game sales are increasing faster than console games, why? Not only because it's new, but people are lazy. It takes only a couple of minutes and $2.00 to buy a game on the mobile market but it actually takes effort to go to your local store and purchase a console game. That or order it online and wait a few days. If you break the laziness you get the dollar. And in the case of mobile games, only a couple dollars per sale.

 

Overall, if you want the longest reach possible, you build for all platforms, but that takes a lot of work. Sure, you can compile code for all platforms usually with a bit of a different setup and engines have made that possible with different button clicks. However, the art side is much more difficult than that. You cannot use the same quality meshes that are standard for console/PC for mobile. Therefore, a game directly designed specifically for a PC, or console, most likely won't work the same for mobile; you might as well pick one or the other.

 

I personally would like to see LE3 on all platforms in the future but support PC/console over mobile.

[Josh]

It's stupid. The most awkward way of playing a game ever. I see this 'high rise' in mobile game sales all due to being the latest tech fad. It's still new so people are going to go crazy over it.

Doesn't matter, I said the same thing about console controllers vs. keyboards. There's always a broader market of less sophisticated players the industry will cater to. I see the exact same thing as PC->consoles, with the same arguments.

 

The guy who bags my groceries asked me if I had "Angry Birds". The next frontier of consumers are the "accidental" gamers. They already have a smart phone and start playing a game on it. They already visit Facebook, and start playing a game on it. I know it's dumb, but my opinion as a consumer has been ignored since 2007, so it's easier for me to accept another move like this.

 

The assumption is that a new generation of consoles will come along and sales will resume. The problem is so many companies have done a very good job at convincing customers that their graphics are "good enough" that there is nowhere to go from here. That's why everyone is focusing on gimmicks like motion controllers:

http://www.tomsguide...news-12351.html

http://www.computera...ation-4-even-do

 

"It's hard for me to conceive what you would do on a PlayStation 4," Gibeau said. "The displays are already 1080p, you're already connected to the internet... You could make it faster, you could have more polys and you could up the graphics a little bit... but at what cost?

 

MS says the next XBox will be in 2015:

http://venturebeat.c...l-game-controls

 

Anyways, the outcome will be apparent within two or three years, so we can all go back to this thread and laugh.

[Paul Thomas]

Yeah but there is one difference. You can try to saturate the console market all you want, it started/starts at $60-50 per game, and it would be a slow decline due to license fees and the work involved. However, everyone and their mom can make, release, and sell a mobile game. When the mobile market becomes saturated, which it most likely has already begun, the average price of a mobile game being at $2.00; soon games will be 10-50 cents or stuck at $1.00 but will be five million different games in the store. Ten to a hundred of them will be similar to a game you release, all competing over $1.00, and that makes it a diluted market. No longer would it be worth it to release for that platform since PC/Mac/Linux/console are still an average $40-60 per game.

 

That, or the opposite, the big name studios step in, the markets increase fees, tightening game quality requirements, and then mobile games are $20+. Sure, now you can sell them for $20, but sale amounts will decrease (again, you have played a mobile game?) and the market is once again dominated by the big name studios. But I doubt that would ever happen, because, again.. have you played a mobile game? lol

 

Big name studios have always had that problem. They rely completely on graphics and tech to be a selling point to their games. When Battlefield 3 was coming out, ALL I heard was how great the graphics are, and not one person who mentioned the upcoming release of BF3 to me mentioned what the game-play was like, or the storyline, or anything else besides the look of the game. Then it's hilarious to me to watch the same people playing BF3 on Steam for a few days and STOP playing. Why? Because it's the same game in a new dress. Can those studios NOT concentrate on an interesting storyline? Interesting mechanics? A single-player mode that doesn't take two hours to complete? Lmao.

 

Anyways, it will definitely be interesting to look back at this thread within a few years.

[tournamentdan]

XBox support is a make or break feature for you?  Do you have a development license?  I fully intend to support the consoles ASAP because it can be sold to professional studios, but MS is locking you out of that platform.

 

Xbox, playstation, apple are just like any other company in the world.They like making money. That being said, I do not need a license to make a game. However yes, I need a license to sell a game for the consoles. If I, you, or anybody makes a good enough game, they(consoles) will gladly make money off of it. It would be extremely counter productive for me if I make a game for a pc, or apple,etc... And then that game take off and gain popularity and then I take that game to the consoles and just maybe they say yes. Then what? Now I have to find a different engine for the consoles. Learn all of their commands,gui,ect... More time more money. As I said before, I think that you will find that since palystaion3 and xbox has been out for a while, the people that want them already have them. So it is just natural that sales level off and drop. Also for games I think you will find that businesses like gamefly and netflix game rental is the reason for game sales drop. I mean its not like you can rent a mobile app.

[Josh]

Yeah but there is one difference. You can try to saturate the console market all you want, it started/starts at $60-50 per game, and it would be a slow decline due to license fees and the work involved. However, everyone and their mom can make, release, and sell a mobile game. When the mobile market becomes saturated, which it most likely has already begun, the average price of a mobile game being at $2.00; soon games will be 10-50 cents or stuck at $1.00 but will be five million different games in the store. Ten to a hundred of them will be similar to a game you release, all competing over $1.00, and that makes it a diluted market. No longer would it be worth it to release for that platform since PC/Mac/Linux/console are still an average $40-60 per game.

It's a strange world when indie developers are complaining about barriers to entry not being high enough.

[Brent Taylor]

It's a strange world when indie developers are complaining about barriers to entry not being high enough.

Agreed. But I do also admit that over saturation is certainly a problem. It's all about proper marketing at that point.

[Paul Thomas]

It wasn't a complaint it was an observation. An observation of the future of mobile game sales due to the markets current structure. If Valve kept filling their store with a ton of low quality games how long do you think people will use Steam? Same observation, except Steam has requirements, and mobile markets don't - so it will fill up with low quality games because people think they will make the next Angry Birds.

 

Wording it the way you did makes it sound like indie developers shouldn't work hard on a game that meets a standard and/or that indie developers don't have the ability to meet those standards. That would be fine for free games but that isn't ideal for any game expecting a decent profit or reputation.

 

That's the next problem, who would spend money marketing a game that costs $2-5? You basically wouldn't or you would severally limit the amount of funding going into marketing. However, there is one part that has potential, and that's in-game advertising. If the game was popular enough it could raise a very healthy monthly income.

[Naughty Alien]

That's the next problem, who would spend money marketing a game that costs $2-5?

..i certanly would not, and from what I was able to hear from mouth of few investors, non related to me, but to other people in industry, this is a main reason for putting down developer asking for money to develop 'super duper' game for mobile. Tricky is, you invest some money, good money, to make some awesome of awesome games for mobiles, and then you advertise it and advertise it (means money and money goes), and soon as you step outside, you realize that there is tons of clones of your game for cheaper price..in other words, not worth investing at all..

[tournamentdan]

I definitely think that there is a potential since there are millions and millions of phones. Maybe instead of paying 50,000 dollars in advertising, We could pay an actor to get kicked off of a plane while playing the game.

[Josh]

Revenue = sales x price. Price alone doesn't matter if your market size on mobile is 100 times bigger

[dennis]

Both MS and the PS3 have a stupidly closed system, and are getting crushed by Apple because of it. Console sales are down something like 30% year over year, while mobile is rising.

that's true. but why don't they open the market then ? they will earn lots of money with it

[Road Kill Kenny]

Imo you have to compare apples with apples..

 

Comparing the console market to the mobile market isn't a fair comparison. Every idiot and his son has a smart phone now. People will pay $1 or $2 for gimmicky things because it is generally an idiots market (just a generalisation so don't take offense).

 

What I'm saying is that just cuz mobile sales goes up doesn't mean console sales go down, they are not necessarily directly related because they are completely different markets with a small overlap. That being said it doesn't mean that it definitely won't make console sales go down.

 

If console sales are going down I would say its probably something else rather than the mobile market rising... Perhaps its just getting towards the end of a generation and people are over this generation of consoles.

 

idk just a thaught

[dennis]

Imo you have to compare apples with apples..

 

Comparing the console market to the mobile market isn't a fair comparison. Every idiot and his son has a smart phone now. People will pay $1 or $2 for gimmicky things because it is generally an idiots market (just a generalisation so don't take offense).

 

What I'm saying is that just cuz mobile sales goes up doesn't mean console sales go down, they are not necessarily directly related because they are completely different markets with a small overlap. That being said it doesn't mean that it definitely won't make console sales go down.

 

If console sales are going down I would say its probably something else rather than the mobile market rising... Perhaps its just getting towards the end of a generation and people are over this generation of consoles.

 

idk just a thaught

a few weeks ago I found a article which said that console sales go down because, the PC is upcoming, as a superior

[Naughty Alien]

..console market doing just fine, and I see nobody from PS3 and Xbox 360 dev cycle worried about mobile games..they are just so different league that its light years away..

[Pixel Perfect]

I agree, most of the console players i know fully intend to upgrade to the next gen of consoles when they emerge and are still buying console games. They lot play games on their phones too, but its just considered light entertainment, in no way a replacement for their console gaming experience.

 

As one of your new engine's biggest plus factors is the ability to develop games for the mobile platforms I can see why you're promoting this Josh. It is indeed a valid market place but I don't believe it will be replacing consoles/PC gaming any time soon if indeed ever, it will just run in parallel.

 

The mobile games market place is undoubtedly a good place for an indie games starter to gain some experience and make some sales though.

[Josh]

I agree, most of the console players i know fully intend to upgrade to the next gen of consoles when they emerge and are still buying console games. They lot play games on their phones too, but its just considered light entertainment, in no way a replacement for their console gaming experience.

 

As one of your new engine's biggest plus factors is the ability to develop games for the mobile platforms I can see why you're promoting this Josh. It is indeed a valid market place but I don't believe it will be replacing consoles/PC gaming any time soon if indeed ever, it will just run in parallel.

 

The mobile games market place is undoubtedly a good place for an indie games starter to gain some experience and make some sales though.

Your friends are likely to be gamers who like playing games. There are enormous numbers of people who are not gamers, who do not really like games, who bought consoles last round because it was popular, Wii and kinect in particular. The console industry has become dependent on this larger market of non-gamers, thus all the focus they are putting on motion controllers and gimmicks.

 

According to this, console hardware and software sales are down 40% since last year. That is decimation:

http://www.vgchartz....es-still-dying/

 

My thesis is that a new round of consoles will not fix this. Improved graphics alone will not provide enough benefit because we've already established that people are perfectly happy playing with vastly inferior visuals. Improved graphics wasn't even enough with the last round of consoles, which is why Wii and Kinect were the big winners, and the improvements will be less this time around. I expect to see lots of gimmicks like the Wii-U. There's a rumor the new XBox will have a touchscreen built into the controller. If this turns out to be true, it will be a clear signal they are desperate and have no idea what to do.

 

Read this article, it's one of the smartest things I have read:

http://www.cracked.c...om-e3-2010.html

 

 

 

 

[tournamentdan]

Your friends are likely to be gamers who like playing games.  There are enormous numbers of people who are not gamers, who do not really like games, who bought consoles last round because it was popular, Wii and kinect in particular.  The console industry has become dependent on this larger market of non-gamers, thus all the focus they are putting on motion controllers and gimmicks.

 

At first I was kind of confused about the Wii and it's initial rise in popularity. The graphics went backwards and it's not like playstation did not try for years to get different types of controllers to take off. Then I realized that they tapped into a different type of game market. Family's buy Wii so they can play games with their younger children. The wii is just a different type of product for a different type of consumer. The kinect is pretty much the same.

[Pixel Perfect]

Well from my experience, the rise of mobile phone technology, the Wii and Kinect are all down to the same basic reason, they inherently expanded the hardware and software marketplace massively into the female and child marketplace. The above videos are simply examples of the big industries targeting that very marketplace. The Wii started it and everyone else just jumps on the bandwagon desperate to re-coop some of that newly created marketplace. I don't see the traditional male dominated console/PC gaming market swapping in droves to these alternatives. Gimmicks do sell as people require more and more stimulation to get excitement in their lives, the same thing is happening with 3D television but fortunately these things are mainly fads which people tire of quickly and do not lead to the demise of the more solidly based entertainment staples. So the market place that sustained the big console producers in the early days is not going to crumble, they may just fall back to the less dizzy heights of profit seen when you hit the gimmick sales.

 

Sure you could argue whether a future series of hardware based consoles are necessary as people are fairly happy as you say with the current quality of graphics in games but the current generation of consoles are certainly suffering in terms of physics support and people have to work hard to provide the level of top end graphical output due to the limited hardware resources. Serious game players are not going to stop playing games and will require either a decent console or a PC in order to do so for the foreseeable future, and new generations of players are coming on line all the time to maintain the marketplace.

 

Its like the fashion industry, just because some garment is in demand and a raging fashion with the youngsters doesn't imply that I won't be able to buy a pair of jeans in a few years time!

 

[EDIT] Just saw your post Dan, and as you can see I'm pretty much in agreement

[Mumbles]

I think "child friendly" might be a better description than just "child". Even when I was at school at maybe 11 years old, playing games like GTA wasn't exactly unheard of, loads of people in my year had it (admittedly, they were all boys, but still).

[tournamentdan]

According to this, console hardware and software sales are down 40% since last year. That is decimation:

 

 

 

 

 

You keep putting some stats out there about console game sales are down but you fail to see why. As console games sales go down. Console game RENTAL goes up. Way up. Also used game sales are way up. In a lower economy people do not like buying a expensive game that they can beat in a few hours.

[tournamentdan]

Before touch screen phones and internet phones the mobile phone market was not doing as well as it is today. I suppose a person could look at touch screen phones as kind of like a gimmick. The junk that we have in phones today is not really needed. But it is new, and new sells. What do you think will happen when phones are fast enough? Which is not far. What kind of gimmicks will they come up with? Gadgets sell, and that is fairly obvious with all the tens of thousands of useless apps out there.

[tournamentdan]

I think "child friendly" might be a better description than just "child". Even when I was at school at maybe 11 years old, playing games like GTA wasn't exactly unheard of, loads of people in my year had it (admittedly, they were all boys, but still).

 

Yes but your not really going to play GTA with MOM and DAD. I am sure they would love it if they were watching their child play GTA and then all the sudden their little bundle of joy picks up a hooker in the street. Or runs her over with a car.